Photovoltaic Market Data & Analysis

As existing photovoltaic systems age, the dismantling of solar modules is becoming increasingly important. This refers to the physical removal of the modules from their installation site—a process that varies greatly. Not every dismantled module is recycled. Forecasts therefore refer to all modules that are expected to be taken out of service – regardless of whether they are recycled, reused, or disposed of. Many of these modules do not end up being recycled. Some are sold abroad, others enter the so-called second-life market, for example for smaller projects or private use. Still others are disposed of without raw material recovery. To realistically represent decommissioning, a scenario model with four variants was developed that takes technical and economic factors into account. The distribution is stochastic via a Weibull function, which also includes premature and delayed failures:

1. Base Case Scenario (27.5 years):

   The base case scenario represents a realistic average of conservative and optimistic assumptions. Decommissioning in this scenario is based on a combination of technical and economic reasons across all plant types and operator strategies.

2. Early Loss Scenario (20 years):

   This scenario shows premature decommissioning for economic reasons, often after the EEG subsidy has expired. In many cases, a switch to more powerful modules is made at the same time (repowering).

3. Extended Commercial Lifetime (25 years):

   Operators continue to feed electricity into the grid even after the end of subsidies – e.g., in stable market conditions or with low degradation. The modules remain economically viable but do not reach the end of their technical life.

4. Technical End-of-Life Scenario (30 years):

   The modules remain in operation until the end of their technical life. Decommissioning only takes place in the event of physical performance loss or technical defects.

The model also takes into account various reasons for dismantling: in addition to aging and degradation, these include so-called teething problems (early technical defects) and accidental dismantling, for example due to renovations or external damage. A distinction is also made between private and commercial systems. Private systems usually remain in operation longer due to lower operating costs, less pressure to repower, and a lack of economic constraints.

With the increasing decommissioning of old photovoltaic systems, the recycling of solar modules is becoming increasingly important. The aim is to recover valuable raw materials such as silicon, silver, aluminum, copper, glass, and plastics as efficiently as possible and reuse them.

A solar module consists of over 90 percent recyclable materials. The recycling process begins with mechanical pre-treatment, during which aluminum frames and junction boxes are removed. This is followed by thermal or chemical separation of the layers to isolate glass, metals, and semiconductor materials. The recovery of high-purity silicon for reuse in solar cell production is particularly important.

Companies such as Circular Silicon and Solar Materials are working on innovative solutions. Circular Silicon focuses on the recycling of solar silicon, while Solar Materials has developed a patented process for complete material separation, including the recovery of silver and glass.

Despite the existing technology, the majority of old modules are still not recycled to a high standard. However, legal requirements, rising raw material prices, and technological advances mean that recycling will play a central role in the life cycle of solar modules in the future.