PV Dismantling & End-of-Life Data

An analysis of country-specific dismantling forecasts for 2030 reveals considerable differences in scope, causes, and infrastructural challenges associated with photovoltaic dismantling/PV dismantling. Volumes are forecast in both units and tons, providing a sound basis for planning, policy, and the recycling industry.

Germany is the clear leader in the European dismantling market. The old systems installed there in the early 2000s are now increasingly reaching the end of their service life.

China follows, generating massive return volumes solely due to its market size and accelerated expansion since 2015, setting global standards in PV data tracking. Both countries must maintain or expand large-volume, industrially scaled take-back systems.

The US is also among the leaders with over 1,300,000 modules to be dismantled. The market is highly segmented – large utility-scale projects and decentralized rooftop systems are equally responsible for dismantling volumes. Due to the federal structure, coordinated disposal standards and infrastructure are necessary to avoid logistical and regulatory disruptions.

Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Japan are in the medium to high range. These markets have early installations that will be taken out of service by 2030 for technical or economic reasons. Economic factors such as expiring feed-in tariffs or repowering dominate over purely technical degradation.

France, Belgium, and the Netherlands show stable, medium return volumes with well-established take-back structures. Disposal is more systematically embedded here, which supports the transition to circular economy processing.

Poland, India, Brazil, and Chile are at the beginning of their dismantling development. Their dismantling volumes are comparatively low, but have already increased measurably since 2018 due to dynamic expansion. These countries face the challenge of systematically establishing recycling and reuse in parallel with further expansion.

It is striking that dismantling is increasingly determined by economic rather than technical factors: falling remuneration rates, business optimizations, and new technologies are leading to many modules being dismantled before they reach the end of their maximum service life. This is shifting the requirements from classic end-of-life planning to flexible, market-oriented take-back systems.

Overall, the data shows that photovoltaic dismantling will no longer be a marginal issue from 2030 onwards, but will become a central component of the energy transition – with implications for raw material security, waste policy, and industrial recycling at the international level. The different dismantling patterns in each country illustrate that a coordinated, structured, and data-based strategy is necessary to efficiently manage the upcoming material flows in photovoltaic dismantling and to make optimal use of PV data for the global solar market.